# Implyra methodology and definitions

> Source: https://implyra.com/methodology
> Checked against the production data pipeline on October 9, 2026

Implyra is a trader-intelligence platform for prediction markets. It tracks who is trading what on Polymarket, Kalshi and Hyperliquid: wallet profit and loss, whales, smart money, wallet clusters, funding relationships and market signals, in a free web terminal and an enterprise API.

## Coverage

| Venue | What is covered | Since | Note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Polymarket | Markets, order-book fills, wallets, positions, P&L, clusters, cohorts, funding | 21 Nov 2022 | First order-book fill in the data. Earlier AMM trades (from Sep 2020) are used only as cost basis. |
| Hyperliquid | Perpetuals and HIP-4 outcome markets, traders, positions, P&L, clusters | 2 May 2026 | Continuous coverage of perps and outcome markets starts here. |
| Kalshi | Events, markets, prices and trades | 11 Mar 2026 | Kalshi publishes trades without trader identities, so there are no Kalshi wallets or trader P&L. |

## Refresh cadence

| Data | Refreshed |
| --- | --- |
| Polymarket trader rankings | 10 minutes |
| Polymarket positions and closed-position stats | 5 minutes |
| Hyperliquid leaderboards | 5 minutes |
| Market signals | 15 minutes |
| Cohort positioning and market correlations | 30 minutes |
| Risk metrics and smart score | Hourly |
| Wallet clusters | Daily, 04:00 UTC |

## Profit and loss

### Realized P&L

Per wallet and market, the cash a wallet took out (sells, merges, redemptions) minus the cash it put in (buys, splits), including taker fees. It is booked once the market has resolved and the position is closed.

### Unrealized P&L

For open positions in markets that have not resolved, (current price − average cost) × shares held. Average cost follows Polymarket: order-book buys at their price, splits at $0.50, neg-risk conversions at the cost of the shares given up. Inactive placeholder outcomes are valued at 0. Total P&L is realized plus unrealized.

### Win rate

The share of a wallet’s closed positions that made money. A position is one wallet in one market, both outcomes together.

> A high win rate is not an edge on its own: buying outcomes at 95¢ or more wins most of the time and can still lose money overall.

### Why figures can differ from Polymarket’s profile page

Implyra rebuilds P&L from on-chain fills, splits, merges, redemptions and neg-risk conversions rather than copying Polymarket’s own number, so the two can disagree for some wallets.

- Neg-risk conversions are modelled as in Polymarket’s P&L subgraph: the No shares given up leave at their average cost, and the Yes shares received carry the rest of the cost.
- Share transfers between wallets outside a trade are not modelled. Shares received by transfer have no recorded cost, so those positions are never booked as realized; shares sent away keep their cost and read as a loss.
- Maker rebates and liquidity rewards are not included.
- Redemptions made by Polymarket’s auto-redeemer are credited to the wallet that held the shares.

## Wallet labels

### Whale

A wallet holding large positions right now.

- Polymarket: open positions worth at least $50,000.
- Hyperliquid outcome markets: at least $50,000 gross notional, or a position of at least $10,000 in the market shown.
- Hyperliquid perps: a portfolio of at least $50,000, or a single position of at least $100,000.

### Smart money

A wallet with a sustained, profitable record: enough closed positions to judge, a win rate of 60% or more, and real profit.

- Polymarket: at least 20 closed positions, a win rate of at least 60% and at least $5,000 in total P&L (realized plus unrealized).
- Hyperliquid outcome markets: at least 5 closed positions, a win rate of at least 60% and at least $1,000 realized P&L.
- Hyperliquid perps: at least 20 closed positions, a win rate of at least 60% and at least $5,000 realized P&L.

> Past results only. The label does not predict future trades.

### New wallet, sizable position (the “Insider” flag)

A wallet whose first activity was within the last 48 hours and that already holds a position worth at least $100 in the market shown ($500 on Hyperliquid perps).

> The flag describes wallet age and position size only. It does not mean the trader had non-public information, and Implyra never alleges that anyone did.

### Smart score

A 0–100 score for Polymarket’s 5,000 highest-volume wallets: profitability 30% (win rate and ROI), risk 25% (Sharpe, Sortino, maximum drawdown), consistency 20% (winning and losing streaks), volume 15% and experience 10% (number of positions). Each part is scaled between fixed bounds.

## Relationships and market analytics

### Wallet cluster

A group of wallets that behave alike. Pairs of wallets are scored 60% on the markets they share and 40% on shared funding sources; pairs scoring 0.5 or more are linked, and community detection (Louvain) forms groups of two or more.

- Shared markets: Jaccard similarity of 0.3 or more.
- Shared funding: USDC deposits of $100 or more from the same outside address in the last 60 days. Exchanges and bridges are excluded.

> A cluster is a behavioural pattern, not proof that one person controls the wallets.

### Funding graph

The on-chain collateral transfers into and out of a wallet (USDC.e, and since April 2026 pUSD minted from a wallet’s deposit address): who funded it, multi-hop traces back to labelled sources such as exchanges and bridges, and other wallets funded from the same address.

### Cohorts

Traders grouped by all-time P&L (from “extremely profitable”, +$100,000 or more, down to −$100,000 or worse) and by portfolio size (from under $1,000 up to $500,000 or more). For each market, Implyra shows how each cohort is positioned on Yes and No.

### Market correlations

The Pearson correlation of one-minute prices over 1, 7 and 30 days, between active markets (over $1,000 traded in 24 hours) that share holders. Only pairs with |r| above 0.3 are kept.

### Signals

Rule-based market alerts, checked every 15 minutes: volume up more than 500% in an hour, more than three whales or more than two new wallets entering or leaving in an hour, or the Yes price moving more than 20% in four hours.

> The written explanation on a high-severity signal is generated by an AI model and labelled as such.

## Questions

### How do I see a Polymarket wallet’s profit and loss?

Search the wallet address or Polymarket username in the Implyra terminal. The trader page shows realized and unrealized P&L, P&L over time, open and closed positions, every trade, related wallets and where the wallet was funded from. It is free and needs no account.

### How far back does Implyra’s data go?

Polymarket order-book fills from 21 November 2022, Kalshi trades from 11 March 2026, and Hyperliquid perps and HIP-4 outcome markets from 2 May 2026.

### Can I see who is behind a Kalshi trade?

No. Kalshi is a regulated exchange that publishes trades without account identities, so Implyra covers Kalshi markets, prices and trades but not Kalshi traders. Wallet-level analysis is available for Polymarket and Hyperliquid, where trades settle on-chain.

### Does a high win rate mean a trader is skilled?

Not on its own. A wallet that buys outcomes priced at 95¢ or more wins about as often as the price implies, and one loss can erase many small wins. Implyra’s smart-money label therefore requires profit and a minimum number of closed positions, not just a win rate.

### Is the data available through an API?

Yes. The Implyra API serves trader rankings, wallet positions and history, market discovery, cohorts, funding relationships and Polymarket–Kalshi market matches, with an OpenAPI contract.