 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes | 2.3K | 42¢ | 54¢ | $1.2K | — |
 Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No | 1.1K | 55¢ | 86¢ | $914.96 | — |
 Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?Yes | 2.0K | 48¢ | 27¢ | $540 | — |
 Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes | 521.28 | 78¢ | 81¢ | $419.63 | — |
 Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?No | 1.3K | 40¢ | 30¢ | $403.5 | — |
 Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?No | 400 | 57¢ | 81¢ | $324 | — |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?No | 384.72 | 84¢ | 81¢ | $309.7 | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No | 307.69 | 78¢ | 81¢ | $247.69 | — |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?No | 250 | 66¢ | 62¢ | $155 | — |
 Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Minnesota in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes | 200 | 61¢ | 60¢ | $120 | — |
 Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No | 203.1 | 64¢ | 57¢ | $115.77 | — |
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Yes | 800 | 34¢ | 13¢ | $100 | — |
 Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes | 192 | 46¢ | 52¢ | $99.84 | — |
 Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Iowa in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes | 343.81 | 21¢ | 23¢ | $77.36 | — |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,450,000 and 1,500,000?No | 76.99 | 70¢ | 97¢ | $74.49 | — |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be 1,600,000 or more?No | 27 | 99¢ | 98¢ | $26.42 | — |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,500,000 and 1,550,000?No | 27 | 95¢ | 96¢ | $26.04 | — |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,550,000 and 1,600,000?No | 27 | >99¢ | 96¢ | $25.95 | — |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,400,000 and 1,450,000?No | 28.95 | 74¢ | 86¢ | $24.75 | — |
 Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 260.08 | 4¢ | 4¢ | $10.79 | — |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?No | 56 | 21¢ | 17¢ | $9.24 | — |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 54.53 | 8¢ | 12¢ | $6.27 | — |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 82.81 | 10¢ | 8¢ | $6.21 | — |
| Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 54.86 | 6¢ | 11¢ | $5.9 | — |
| Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 111.78 | 6¢ | 5¢ | $5.48 | — |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 80.08 | 9¢ | 7¢ | $5.21 | — |
| Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 62.71 | 4¢ | 4¢ | $2.29 | — |
| Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 10.08 | 3¢ | 14¢ | $1.43 | — |
| Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 10.08 | 3¢ | 7¢ | $0.66 | — |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 10.08 | 3¢ | 5¢ | $0.49 | — |
| Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 10.08 | 3¢ | 5¢ | $0.46 | — |
| Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 10.08 | 3¢ | 4¢ | $0.36 | — |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 10.08 | 3¢ | 3¢ | $0.26 | — |
| Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 10.08 | 3¢ | 2¢ | $0.21 | — |
| Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 10.08 | 3¢ | 1¢ | $0.11 | — |
| Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 9.07 | 3¢ | 1¢ | $0.07 | — |
| Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 10.08 | 3¢ | <1¢ | $0.04 | — |
| Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 5.03 | 3¢ | <1¢ | $0.01 | — |
| Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 10.08 | 3¢ | <1¢ | $0.005 | — |
| Will E win the IA-02 House seat?Yes | 8.19 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | — |
| Will A win the IA-02 House seat?Yes | 8.19 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | — |
| Will B win the IA-02 House seat?Yes | 8.19 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | — |
| Will D win the IA-02 House seat?Yes | 8.19 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | — |
| Will C win the IA-02 House seat?Yes | 8.19 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | — |
| Will another party win the IA-02 House seat?Yes | 8.19 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | — |
| Will another team win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes | 10.08 | 3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | — |