 Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?Yes | 419.12 | 56¢ | 72¢ | $301.76 | — |
 Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Yes | 2.4K | 19¢ | 12¢ | $270.32 | — |
 Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Yes | 347.98 | 55¢ | 74¢ | $255.77 | — |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?Yes | 231.57 | 75¢ | 85¢ | $195.68 | — |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?Yes | 303.03 | 33¢ | 38¢ | $113.64 | — |
 Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?Yes | 217.39 | 46¢ | 51¢ | $109.78 | — |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Yes | 254.59 | 47¢ | 33¢ | $82.74 | — |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?Yes | 166.67 | 60¢ | 44¢ | $73.33 | — |
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?Yes | 99.99 | 55¢ | 53¢ | $53 | — |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Yes | 282.55 | 14¢ | 16¢ | $45.21 | — |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?Yes | 53.33 | 75¢ | 84¢ | $44.53 | — |
 NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes | 273.81 | 29¢ | 16¢ | $42.44 | — |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?Yes | 86.29 | 32¢ | 49¢ | $42.28 | — |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Yes | 454.55 | 11¢ | 9¢ | $40.91 | — |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Yes | 40.7 | 86¢ | 98¢ | $39.76 | — |
 Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Yes | 791.67 | 8¢ | 5¢ | $35.63 | — |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?Yes | 90 | 33¢ | 36¢ | $32.4 | — |
 Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Yes | 294.12 | 17¢ | 10¢ | $29.41 | — |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?No | 71.43 | 56¢ | 38¢ | $26.79 | — |
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Yes | 199.13 | 37¢ | 12¢ | $23.6 | — |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Yes | 138.1 | 20¢ | 17¢ | $22.79 | — |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Yes | 35.87 | 53¢ | 53¢ | $18.83 | — |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?Yes | 19.32 | 88¢ | 94¢ | $18.09 | — |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?Yes | 111.11 | 9¢ | 16¢ | $17.22 | — |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes | 200 | 26¢ | 8¢ | $15 | — |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?No | 26.32 | 19¢ | 54¢ | $14.08 | — |
 Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes | 100 | 56¢ | 11¢ | $10.55 | — |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Yes | 142.86 | 7¢ | 7¢ | $9.29 | — |
 Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?Yes | 197.53 | 24¢ | 4¢ | $7.11 | — |
 Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Yes | 18.09 | 55¢ | 33¢ | $5.88 | — |
 Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?Yes | 537.25 | 2¢ | 1¢ | $2.95 | — |
 SSI public model released by November 30, 2026?Yes | 313.73 | 56¢ | 1¢ | $1.73 | — |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Yes | 20.41 | 49¢ | 7¢ | $1.43 | — |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Yes | 1.3K | 8¢ | <1¢ | $0.64 | — |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Yes | 588.24 | 17¢ | <1¢ | $0.29 | — |