Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Elections53Neg-risk · Shared collateral groupAlexandria Ocasio-CortezYes 16¢No 84¢Gavin NewsomYes 16¢No 84¢Jon OssoffYes 15¢No 85¢+50 more outcomes—$72.1MNov 8, 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028Politics55Neg-risk · Shared collateral groupJD VanceYes 18¢No 82¢Alexandria Ocasio-CortezYes 13¢No 87¢Gavin NewsomYes 12¢No 88¢+52 more outcomes—$59.2MNov 8, 2028
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Politics43Neg-risk · Shared collateral groupJ.D. VanceYes 38¢No 62¢Marco RubioYes 21¢No 79¢Ron DeSantisYes 4¢No 96¢+40 more outcomes—$49.1MNov 8, 2028
Next French Presidential ElectionPolitics45Neg-risk · Shared collateral groupMarine Le PenYes 41¢No 59¢David LisnardYes 17¢No 83¢Édouard PhilippeYes 14¢No 87¢+42 more outcomes—$18.4MApr 19, 2027
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?Crypto30↓ 70,000Yes 47¢No 54¢↑ 90,000Yes 28¢No 73¢↓ 65,000Yes 27¢No 74¢+27 more outcomes—$4.4MJan 1, 2027
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?Geopolitics13Neg-risk · Shared collateral group0 (0 bps)Yes 97¢No 3¢1 (25 bps)Yes 1¢No 99¢2 (50 bps)Yes 1¢No 100¢+10 more outcomes—$3.6MJan 1, 2027
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Politics16Neg-risk · Shared collateral groupNicolás MaduroYes 84¢No 16¢Delcy RodríguezYes 12¢No 89¢No Head of StateYes 2¢No 99¢+13 more outcomes—$2.4MJan 1, 2027
Highest grossing movie in 2026?Geopolitics14Neg-risk · Shared collateral groupSpider-Man: Brand New DayYes 91¢No 9¢Avengers: DoomsdayYes 9¢No 91¢The Super Mario Galaxy MovieYes <1¢No >99¢+11 more outcomes—$2.4MJan 8, 2027
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?Crypto21↓ 2,000Yes 46¢No 55¢↑ 3,000Yes 19¢No 82¢↓ 1,750Yes 18¢No 83¢+18 more outcomes—$2.1MJan 1, 2027
Democratic VP Nominee 2028Politics43Neg-risk · Shared collateral groupAlexandria Ocasio-CortezYes 11¢No 90¢Gretchen WhitmerYes 9¢No 91¢Elissa SlotkinYes 8¢No 92¢+40 more outcomes—$2.0MNov 8, 2028
Worlds 2026: WinnerSports9Neg-risk · Shared collateral groupGen.GYes 47¢No 54¢T1Yes 22¢No 79¢Bilibili GamingYes 15¢No 85¢+6 more outcomes—$1.9MNov 29
Iran leader end of 2026?Geopolitics30Neg-risk · Shared collateral groupMojtaba KhameneiYes 85¢No 15¢No Head of StateYes 5¢No 95¢Reza PahlaviYes 2¢No 98¢+27 more outcomes—$1.7MDec 31
Next Prime Minister of Spain?Politics20Neg-risk · Shared collateral groupAlberto Núñez FeijóoYes 84¢No 16¢Pedro SánchezYes 10¢No 90¢Santiago AbascalYes 2¢No 98¢+17 more outcomes—$1.5MNov 30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Politics15December 31, 2027Yes 70¢No 31¢November 30, 2027Yes 68¢No 33¢October 31, 2027Yes 65¢No 36¢+12 more outcomes—$1.2MJul 1, 2027
Argentina Presidential Election WinnerPolitics21Neg-risk · Shared collateral groupJavier MileiYes 44¢No 56¢Axel KicillofYes 29¢No 72¢Sergio MassaYes 15¢No 85¢+18 more outcomes—$1.2MOct 25, 2027
Republican VP Nominee 2028Politics35Neg-risk · Shared collateral groupMarco RubioYes 27¢No 73¢Tucker CarlsonYes 6¢No 94¢J.D. VanceYes 6¢No 94¢+32 more outcomes—$1.1MNov 8, 2028
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?Politics2December 31Yes 3¢No 97¢October 31Yes <1¢No >99¢—$1.0MJan 1, 2027
What price will Solana hit in 2026?Crypto20↓ 90Yes 77¢No 23¢↓ 80Yes 44¢No 56¢↓ 70Yes 22¢No 78¢+17 more outcomes—$983.5KJan 1, 2027
TIME Person of the Year 2026Culture28Zohran MamdaniYes 30¢No 71¢Mark CarneyYes 18¢No 83¢Pope Leo XIVYes 17¢No 83¢+25 more outcomes—$963.4KJul 1, 2027