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Data-backed guides to prediction markets: wallet P&L, whales, smart money, clusters, and how Polymarket, Kalshi and Hyperliquid actually work. Every number is sourced and dated.

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Field notes from the Implyra research desk3 articlesLatest Sep 7, 2026
The latest01
An analytical diagram separating wallet profit, position value and win rate

Wallet research/Sep 7, 2026/5 min read

What a prediction-market wallet’s P&L actually tells you

Read profit, entry price, open exposure and win rate together. Two worked examples show why the definitions matter.

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More from the desk
Market structure 1Developer notes 1

Market structure

  • 02

    Market structure/Sep 7, 2026/5 min read

    Before comparing the odds, compare the rules

    A practical method for matching Polymarket and Kalshi markets: outcomes, thresholds, sources, clocks and the prices you can actually compare.

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Developer notes

  • 03

    Developer notes/Sep 7, 2026/6 min read

    One event. Several identifiers.

    Map a Polymarket event to its markets and outcome tokens with one public request. Keep the identifiers separate before adding prices, positions or order books.

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Reports

Guides explain the method.
Reports apply it to one market.

Investigations into specific markets and wallets, with the queries and frozen data behind every number.

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